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Strategy

EV Betting Calculator

New to EV? Enter your market odds, bet size, and your win estimate to see if a bet has long-run value.

New to this? Start with:Single Bet Calculator, Odds Converter

What is EV? It is the long-run average profit or loss per bet. Learn more

Quick start

  1. Enter odds in any one format
  2. Enter stake amount
  3. Set your estimated win probability
  4. Check EV amount and your edge vs market in results

Try a quick EV example

$100 at +120 odds with 50% win estimate to see a positive EV case.

odds format selector

Need help with odds formats? Learn this step

Converted

Decimal1.909
Fractional10/11
Probability52.38%
$
Range$0 – $1,000
%
Quick adjust with slider

Enter your true win estimate, not the sportsbook implied probability.

How to estimate your win probability? Learn this step

Expected Value Results

Positive EV (+EV)

Your win estimate beats the break-even rate — this bet has positive expected value. Your estimate: 55.00% vs 52.38% break-even — edge: 2.62 pts. Long-run average: +$5.00 per $100 bet.

Verdict

Marginal EV

Small edge detected. The math slightly favors this bet, but variance is high.

EV Amount

$5.00

If Win

$90.90

If Lose

-$100.00

Probability Comparison

Your Estimate55.0%
Break-even52.4%
Edge+2.62pp

Quick read: positive EV signals long-run value, not a guaranteed result on this single bet.

In plain English

If your honest estimate of how often this bet wins is higher than the break-even rate the book needs, you have an edge. The calculator shows that edge in dollars per bet and as a percentage.

How to interpret EV and break-even? Learn this step

Implied Probability for -110 Odds Explained

At -110 odds you must risk $110 to win $100. The break-even win rate is 110 ÷ (110 + 100) = 52.38%. That number is the implied probability — the minimum percentage of the time the bet needs to win for you to break even.

Formula for negative American odds: Implied Probability = |odds| ÷ (|odds| + 100). For -110: 110 ÷ 210 = 0.5238, or 52.38%.

Formula for positive American odds: Implied Probability = 100 ÷ (odds + 100). For +150: 100 ÷ 250 = 0.40, or 40%.

Why this matters for EV: if you estimate a -110 bet wins 55% of the time, your edge is 55% − 52.38% = 2.62 percentage points. That’s a positive EV bet — enter those numbers above to see the exact dollar value.

Copy a link that opens this calculator with your current values.

How EV Is Calculated

Expected value: average profit or loss per bet over the long run. = (Estimated probability that the bet wins. x Profit if Win) - (Estimated probability that the bet loses. x Stake)

P(lose) = 1 - P(win). Edge is calculated as: your estimated probability - market break-even probability.

How it works

  1. Enter the book’s odds — The offer you’re considering, in any format.
  2. Estimate your true win rate — Your honest read of how often this bet should hit.
  3. See if the math works — EV and break-even rate tell you if it’s worth taking.

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Expected Value FAQs

A bet where, on average, you make money across many identical placements — your estimated win rate beats what the book is paying. One +EV bet is never a guaranteed winner; the edge only surfaces across volume.

EV = (win probability × profit on a win) − (loss probability × stake). Positive means the price is better than the probability warrants.

The exact win rate that makes the bet neutral at the book’s price. Above it, you have edge. Below it, the book wins long-term.

Use a sharp book’s line as your baseline, then adjust for what you know the market hasn’t priced in. If you can’t name a reason your estimate should beat the sharp, just use the sharp’s number.

No — variance decides single outcomes. EV only tells you the expected long-run return. Positive EV means the price is in your favor; actual results need volume to converge.

Multiply your estimated win probability by the profit you’d receive, then subtract your estimated loss probability multiplied by your stake. EV = (win% × profit) − (loss% × stake). Use this free EV calculator to do it instantly for any odds format.

Positive EV betting means consistently placing bets where your estimated win probability is higher than the break-even probability implied by the odds. Over time, +EV bets produce profit even though individual results vary due to variance.

Yes — this EV calculator for sports betting is completely free. Enter your odds in American, decimal, or fractional format along with your stake and estimated win probability to get instant expected value results.

The break-even win rate for -110 odds is 52.38%. The formula is |odds| ÷ (|odds| + 100) = 110 ÷ 210 = 0.5238. You need to win more than 52.38% of the time at -110 for the bet to be +EV.

For negative odds: Implied Probability = |odds| ÷ (|odds| + 100). For positive odds: Implied Probability = 100 ÷ (odds + 100). Example: -110 → 110 ÷ 210 = 52.38%. +150 → 100 ÷ 250 = 40%.