EV Betting Calculator

A bet where, on average, you make money across many identical placements — your estimated win rate beats what the book is paying. One +EV bet is never a guaranteed winner; the edge only surfaces across volume.

EV = (win probability × profit on a win) − (loss probability × stake). Positive means the price is better than the probability warrants.

The exact win rate that makes the bet neutral at the book’s price. Above it, you have edge. Below it, the book wins long-term.

Use a sharp book’s line as your baseline, then adjust for what you know the market hasn’t priced in. If you can’t name a reason your estimate should beat the sharp, just use the sharp’s number.

No — variance decides single outcomes. EV only tells you the expected long-run return. Positive EV means the price is in your favor; actual results need volume to converge.

Multiply your estimated win probability by the profit you’d receive, then subtract your estimated loss probability multiplied by your stake. EV = (win% × profit) − (loss% × stake). Use this free EV calculator to do it instantly for any odds format.

Positive EV betting means consistently placing bets where your estimated win probability is higher than the break-even probability implied by the odds. Over time, +EV bets produce profit even though individual results vary due to variance.

Yes — this EV calculator for sports betting is completely free. Enter your odds in American, decimal, or fractional format along with your stake and estimated win probability to get instant expected value results.

The break-even win rate for -110 odds is 52.38%. The formula is |odds| ÷ (|odds| + 100) = 110 ÷ 210 = 0.5238. You need to win more than 52.38% of the time at -110 for the bet to be +EV.

For negative odds: Implied Probability = |odds| ÷ (|odds| + 100). For positive odds: Implied Probability = 100 ÷ (odds + 100). Example: -110 → 110 ÷ 210 = 52.38%. +150 → 100 ÷ 250 = 40%.

American odds of -110 imply a 52.38% probability, calculated as 110 / (110 + 100) = 52.38%. That is the break-even win rate: you must win more than 52.38% of bets at -110 to be +EV after the standard 4.76% vig.

Compare the implied probability of every available price to your honest estimate of how often the outcome occurs. If your estimate is higher than the implied probability, the bet is +EV. Sharp lines (Pinnacle, Circa) are the cleanest source of true probability — when your book offers a better price than the sharp implied, you have a positive EV bet. Pair this EV calculator with a no-vig calculator to make the gap explicit.

Most sharp bettors target an average EV of +2% to +5% per bet over hundreds of wagers. Anything above +3% sustained across a large sample is exceptional. Sub-+1% EV is typically eaten by the vig and variance, so most bettors avoid it. The EV calculator above shows your EV both in dollars and as a percent so you can scan for bets that clear your threshold.

No — over the long run, negative EV bets lose money by construction. The bigger the negative EV, the faster the bankroll drain. Recreational bets, parlays, and prop bets often look fun but carry steep negative EV (e.g. -5% to -15% per leg). If the EV calculator shows a bet as -EV, the book is charging more than your win estimate justifies. Wait for a better price or pick a different market.