A 57¢ contract is a price, not a pick. Learn what a cent means on Kalshi and Polymarket, what $1 pays if you are right, and how that maps to implied probability.
A Kalshi or Polymarket board does not post −110. It posts a cent.
Arsenal 57¢ means the venue will sell you one Arsenal Yes share for 57 cents. If Arsenal win, that share is worth $1.00. If they do not, it is worth $0. The 57¢ is the price. It is not a pick.
A prediction-market cent is the cash you pay now for $1 later if that side is right. Divide the cent by 100 and you have the venue's implied probability before fees: 57¢ → 57%.
That is the same idea as implied probability on a sportsbook moneyline. The wrapper is different. The math is not.
| You see | You are buying | Pays if you are right | Implied break-even before fees |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal 57¢ | Yes on Arsenal | $1.00 | 57% |
| Brighton 20¢ | Yes on Brighton | $1.00 | 20% |
| Tie 23¢ | Yes on a draw | $1.00 | 23% |
Each row is its own contract. Buying Arsenal Yes is not the same as buying Brighton No. Read the side the card names.
Tip: Open Markets and tap a ¢. That link is the venue Yes button for that side — not a CalcMyBets wager. We do not take the other side of your trade.
Sportsbooks hide probability inside + and −. Prediction markets print the probability.
Paste the American number into the Odds Converter or the Single Bet Calculator if you want payout language you already know. For whether the price is even worth taking, use the +EV Calculator with the cent as implied probability and your own number as the estimate.
You buy 100 Arsenal Yes shares at 57¢.
If your honest number on Arsenal is 57% or lower, there is no edge in the price. If it is higher, the +EV Calculator will show the dollars per $100. Size the stake with the Kelly Calculator only after that edge survives fees.
It is the live price of one Yes (or named-side) share. If the event resolves for that side, the share pays $1. You paid 57¢ plus any taker fee. 57¢ is also a 57% implied break-even before fees.
Only if you already want that side. A cheaper cent after fees is a better price for the same contract, not a prediction that the team wins.
Implied probability is the price itself: 57¢ ≈ 57%. That is about −133 American before fees. Use the Odds Converter if you want every format on screen.
On standard binary event contracts, a winning share pays $1 and a losing share pays $0. Multi-outcome games are separate Yes contracts on each side that should be read one row at a time.